The Final Instalment: Three More Names for the Bubble Basket

The Big Kahuna Revealed

This will be a “best ideas only” bio substack providing actionable, highly digestible and high conviction value to investors focused on quality not quantity. Disclaimer: Nothing in this article (or substack) is considered investment advice and is solely the opinion of the author.

This is the final instalment of the Back of the Napkin Bios bubble proxy series. Parts one through four covered AbCellera, Sana Biotechnology, Prime Medicine, and Caribou Biosciences. The thesis running through all of them is the same: after a five-year bear market that punished long-duration biotech assets indiscriminately, a meaningful number of platform companies with genuine science and peak valuations from the 2021 cycle are trading at fractions of what they were worth when capital was free. When the XBI gets bubbly again — and I think it will — these are the names that get re-discovered rather than merely recovered.

I will keep this installment short. These are three names to have on the radar, not three deep theses. The framework is identical to the rest of the series: what does the science do, why is the valuation anomalous, and why does the re-rating work if the macro cooperates.