Long PTSD: My Top Ideas for the Next 12 Months

(Biology × Political Dislocation) ÷ Time-to-Catalyst = IRR

This will be a "best ideas only" bio substack providing actionable, highly digestible and high conviction value to investors focused on quality not quantity. Disclaimer: Nothing in this article (or substack) is considered investment advice and is solely the opinion of the author.

There is a particular kind of mispricing that shows up when a market has been hurt. Not when it disagrees with you on the science — that’s a normal argument, and normal arguments get priced. I mean when the market has been traumatized by a specific event, learned a lesson from it, and then kept applying that lesson long after the thing that caused the pain left the building.

Everything I want to own over the next twelve months sits in one of two buckets, and both buckets are the same trade wearing different clothes: a therapy with real biological content, sitting inside a politicized regulatory process, where the politics have already flipped and the price hasn’t.