Biohaven: The Math on a Multi-Shot Platform at $9

If We Only Knew

This will be a “best ideas only” bio substack providing actionable, highly digestible and high conviction value to investors focused on quality not quantity. Disclaimer: Nothing in this article (or substack) is considered investment advice and is solely the opinion of the author.

Biohaven (BHVN) trades at roughly $9 today, down from $60+ in mid-2024. The 85% drawdown happened in stages through 2025, with each leg of the decline accompanied by a sell-side capitulation that culminated in RBC’s Leonid Timashev cutting his price target from $54 to $21 in May, to $19 in August, and to $9 in November. He has since walked it back to $22, initially in January and again at $23 in early March before trimming a dollar on the most recent quarterly. The stock has barely moved against this re-rating.

That’s the setup that put BHVN on my watchlist. The sell-side whipsaw doesn’t tell me the stock is mispriced in a particular direction but it tells me the name is mispriced somewhere along that path, and the question is which end of the swing was wrong. After working through the most recent RBC notes, I think there is a credible case that the current price is anchored to the November capitulation rather than to anything resembling a forward-looking view of the assets. Whether that gap closes from here, and on what catalyst, is the question I’m trying to answer.