Back of the Napkin Bios

Back of the Napkin Bios

A Simple Framework for Thinking About Quasi-Binary Events

What is the Price of Asymmetry?

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Back of the Napkin Bios
Feb 06, 2026
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This is not a recommendation, a trade idea, or a forecast.

It is an attempt to explain how I think about uncertainty when outcomes are asymmetric, information is incomplete, and timelines are largely …

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