Back of the Napkin Bios

Back of the Napkin Bios

A Simple Framework for Thinking About Quasi-Binary Events

What is the Price of Asymmetry?

Back of the Napkin Bios's avatar
Back of the Napkin Bios
Feb 06, 2026
∙ Paid

This is not a recommendation, a trade idea, or a forecast.

It is an attempt to explain how I think about uncertainty when outcomes are asymmetric, information is incomplete, and timelines are largely outside an investor’s control. If you are looking for buy or sell alerts, or something you can directly act on without context, this will likely disappoint …

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